This week I made my first appearance on The Voice of the Fan’s live radio show, repping the Baltimore point-of-view for a segment on today’s playoff games. This is everything I was prepared to say if I’d had to argue my point more thoroughly.
I’m always wary of being too confident of a ‘W’, but since I picked the Ravens to win narrowly last weekend and they did, I figured I could safely go on air and talk about why they’re going to win this week. (Ravens 31, Patriots 27, nbd.)
It seems like everyone in the media is giving the Patriots the win, and while New England looked a heck of a lot better last week than Baltimore did, it’s not a given, because last week’s games aren’t very useful as benchmarks.
New England’s offense was one of the best in the NFL this season, but it looked especially good against a Broncos team that just was not in the same class. Baltimore’s defense pulled off the win on Sunday, but the offense isn’t as bad as the tough Texans D made it look.
Still, to prove me right and bring home the win this week, the Ravens must play better than they did against Houston, beginning with the offensive line.
The O-line has to do a better job run blocking and protecting the quarterback. Joe Flacco wasn’t great last week, but he didn’t get any help, either. The Texans sacked him five times and while at least one or two of those can be chalked up to the QB’s utter lack of pocket awareness, the Texans’ defenders were repeatedly on him like a Denny’s Grand Slam breakfast. Baltimore has to score to keep up with the Pats, and that’s not going to happen if Flacco doesn’t get any protection.
When he is pressured, Flacco has to hold onto the ball. He sometimes struggles with ball security when he’s in deer-in-headlights mode, but the Ravens can’t afford turnovers. Speaking of hanging on to the ball, the wide receivers need to make sure they’re catching it. The QB’s numbers from last week would look a little better without the five drops.
No matter how much time Flacco gets, even if the receivers catch everything that comes near them, he’s probably not going to win a shoot-out with Tom Brady. The Ravens need to establish the run so they can put together sustained drives, taking some of the pressure off the defense and, more importantly, keeping the ball out of Brady’s hands.
When Brady’s on the field, the Ravens defense needs to go after him like they have never gone after a quarterback before. It’s going to be tough to cover New England’s gargantuan tight ends - no one’s done it with much success yet - so Baltimore needs to make sure the ball doesn’t even have a chance to get to them.
Terrell Suggs has 14 sacks on the year, but only one in the last four games, and there’s no quarterback he’d rather take down than Tom Brady. He and the rest of the Ravens will be chomping at the bit to get in the backfield, but the Patriots’ offensive line will be a challenge.
Brady, notoriously whiny when he gets knocked down, called his line “our biggest strength on offense.” If he has something very different to say about the O-line after this weekend, the Raven’s D will have done its job. Interceptions would help, too. The Ravens has three in their last playoff win in Foxboro, and three against Houston last week. Since three’s my lucky number, I’m thinking a three-INT day is the way to go.
The bottom line, though, is that defense might win championships, but the Ravens can’t rely solely on their defense to save the game for them. They absolutely have to score some points, and three in three quarters will not cut it this time. The Ravens can’t settle for field goals, and they certainly can’t get stopped at the one-yard line twice and expect to survive the weekend.
Last week, the offense was abysmal while the defense lived up to its stellar reputation. If the Ravens win this week, like I’m hoping they will, they’ll have to play their (almost) best on both sides of the ball.
